UK leaving the EU? - Page 41 - MVAgusta.net
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post #401 of 471 (permalink) Old 10-30-2019, 04:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nesca View Post
Nigel my friend, I provide you the latest insights of one of the greatest geopolitical & geo-strategical analyst of our times.


P.S.: Of course I shouldn't say much, because in this parts of Spain we have our own 11th dimensional bubble universes.......


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EfqSFQlDae8

I think that was the initial assessment:


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post #402 of 471 (permalink) Old 10-30-2019, 05:17 PM
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The shortcomings and dangers of governing through referendums where well understood from the times of ancient Greeks.
Throughout history they(referendums) are beloved by dictators and authoritarian/totalitarian regimes.

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post #403 of 471 (permalink) Old 10-30-2019, 07:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by X81 View Post
Amazing that i can gather more information from someone on the other side of the pond regarding brexit than i can from my own govt and legal organisations. Thank you..............genuinly.
Disclosure, pure greed. One of my majors in college was finance, where I learned the dark arts of speculation through derivatives. Its all (relatively) short term but allowed me early on to leverage very small sums into some pretty serious gains. But its easiest to speculate on losers. Identifiable bubbles, flights to quality, bad actors, false markets, and just stupidity. I tend to avoid catastrophes though.... Its easy because markets are people and people are, generally, predictable. Use it against them and move fast. Think of it as "dark side" betting on craps but not having to pay the house commission.

So when I see one of those 5 things I tend to study them HARD. Volatility can bring big gains but you really have to know which way the wind is going to blow in 5 minutes, which means learning to be a meteorologist. Trust me, I knew very little about your govt until June 9th 2016, when it was apparent you were dead set on doing this thing.

Not that its been easy. Jesus, I thought we had a lot of symbolic bullshit in OUR govt...
X81 and esq'z me like this.


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post #404 of 471 (permalink) Old 10-31-2019, 05:51 AM
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Some days back I had a discussion with a good friend of mine from London, about Brexit. Big funds manager, lots of connections.
He insisted on the "Singapore on Thames" post-Brexit vision. Okay I get that it is a valid(in theory at least) differentiating path requiring such a rift.
But when I asked who and why is gonna support such a plan or to be specific why the USA will use its back, shoulders and arms to push, twist and squeeze the EU in "accepting" the new status, I didn't get a coherent answer.


Interesting times, lets see.

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post #405 of 471 (permalink) Old 10-31-2019, 10:51 AM
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Wow, that is straight-up delusion. Singapore is China with a glittery coat of paint. Over 80% of the population lives at the behest of the govt (both as living in govt housing AND being allowed to breath by an authoritarian govt). JFC, they only recently legalized the sale of chewing gum.

Man, its like someone saw "V for Vendetta" and though, "Man, that sounds nice. We should totally be THAT."


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post #406 of 471 (permalink) Old 10-31-2019, 10:53 AM
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Chris,

I used to import stuff from Japan regularly with my old tuning business. You pay duty on certain items, typically between 2%-10% on car stuff depending on what it is and then VAT. The Vat part is the same, so it's only really the duty and the vat on that element which will differ. As an importer of products, the advice from the Gov is to sign up for an EORI number (Economic Operation Registration and Identification) more info here;

https://www.gov.uk/eori

If you are vat registered, part of the Brexit step up preparations meant the government would automatically enrol you in this and you'd receive a letter from the VAT office with your number. Aside from this, you may have some disruption at ports as a result of delays from those who haven't registered. Some companies I know are bringing things in from quieter ports than Dover. I doubt air shipments will be delayed too much. We import tons of stuff from countries external to EU everyday including Japan and the US.

All of that of course, is if we don't leave with a trade deal or GATT 24 extension or any other temporary arrangements as part of the wider future negotiations. No deal or whatever Brexit we get if it ever happens is only the withdrawal agreement, the future relationship remains to be shaped.

I personally would be quite optimistic about leaving, and importantly our democracy remains intact, which is something that rarely gets discussed in these conversations and I find it mind boggling as this is surely the most important thing in all of this. If we remain as per the Lisbon treaty which takes effect next year, our votes will count for nothing, the EU commission are not accountable to the people in any way. It's a perfect recipe for disaster.

Plenty of food for thought everywhere...here's a good Brexit documentary focusing on the democracy aspect which in my view was the main driver for Brexit, this clarifies how the EU works. Think how much the EU has changed in the last 20 years then imagine the next 20 for which Lisbon treaty clearly defines the future direction.

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post #407 of 471 (permalink) Old 10-31-2019, 11:12 AM
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The UK isnt a true democracy any more than the USA is (actually less since you have lords instead of senators), which is neither on anything more than a local level. its named as such but its a representative republic, same as the rest. Direct democracy died out ages ago when it was realized you couldn't have a public vote on every single thing.

And the EU is no less democratic. For starters they REQUIRE a democratically elected govt to join, a govt that chooses its own representative on the European commission. And the commission relies on powers bestowed on it by treaties. Everything they do is based on a weighted majority vote. And the commission can be stopped by a blocking vote, something the UK has even done multiple times.

You're really just mad that you aren't the majority, but that is what happens when you join any group. Just because you are one in 28 doesn't mean its undemocratic. Its yet another Nigel lie (between him and the daily mail I could crash this forum software listing all of the utter bullshit you people ate up around the EU). Its grabbing the low hanging fruit by saying, "you don't even know these people" to some idiots on the street who couldn't even name their own representatives. And, again, if Nigel knows all of the answers why is he still making youtube bullshit (I dont think you understand what a documentary is) instead of leading the govt that would have been handed to him after the vote?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-reality-check
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post #408 of 471 (permalink) Old 10-31-2019, 12:18 PM
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That article is as misleading as the facade the EU wears. It plays very well to appearing to be this and that, when in reality it is something else.

Look at the complicated layers and separation of decision making and accountability with the EU;

So the Commission can't pass laws, yet they are the ones that represent the interests of the union as a whole, they propose the laws.

These then conveniently get 'adopted' by a) the EU Parliament, who as we know are as powerless as the house of lords, a bit of posturing more than anything, they can delay and get some influence/changes in the unlikely event something doesn't pass, most are nodding dogs who daren't bite the hand that generously feeds them, and b) the very powerful Council of the European Union containing the member states representatives, chosen by the heads of state for each country. So while the heads of states are democratically elected by member states, those who propose the laws are not democratically elected but appointed (both in the commission and the Council of the EU), the laws are approved by a combination of the undemocratically elected council of the EU and any real influence is not passed on to the EU parliament, they are the scapegoats that get final approval to nod something through.

A total separation of powers and accountability with no direct tie to each. It's crazy and overly complex designed to confuse and buffer, it's ripe for corruption, they are all on the same gravy train, in reality everything is decided by the commission. The above three bodies (commission, council of the EU and EU parliament) are the law making bodies. Only the MEP's are democratically elected to be able to do F all except share the blame. The real players are totally isolated from the electorate and therefore totally beyond reproach and accountability. We cannot boot them out, although MEP's could in theory it would never happen.

Within the Council of the EU, when the council votes on a proposal by the commission, our indirectly nominated minister carries 13% of influence given that is our share majority. The UK are moaning the 52% is not enough of a majority to warrant Brexit but we're happy to surrender to decisions made by the Council of the European Union where we only have a 13% contribution.

The conveniently confusingly named European Council on the other hand, sets EU's overall political direction but they can't pass laws. Oh joy, hugely influential but totally isolated once again.

What is ignored is the corrupt racket that the EU is all riding a gravy train that is taxpayer funded, yet we have no say to boot them out if they are rubbish, the only mechanism of accountability that we have over our own government.

It's ironic that you say the EU requires a democratically elected government to join, when their aim is to 'pool sovereignty' or basically suck out all the democracy of that country and absorb it into the EU itself, a self created entity that has homed itself in Brussels that started off as a bit of a joke that no one paid much attention to, which post Maastricht has grown in power and influence with every treaty thereafter with Lisbon being the most radical yet. You mention Veto's, it's the first thing Von der Leyen wanted to remove!


You raise the low hanging fruit and pick out the nonsense part of the video because it's easy to criticise, but you conveniently gloss over the important stuff. Here is one you may appreciate more, Merryam Somerset Webb (editor of Moneyweek) interviewing Bernard Connolly credited by Carney as one of the few who predicted the crash in 2008. It's a bit longer but again, touches on many of the complexities.


I would add, the UK is not alone in it's resentment to the absorption of supremacy by the EU, there are many other EU countries where the citizens are similarly conflicted. The European project started out as a trading block, all was fine, then it morphed into what we have, and wishes to further morph into a federal state with it's own peace keeping force, army etc. Once we start going down that road, there will be no turning back, no exit route, no repatriation of powers. Most wars are started because people want freedom from oppression, a rule of law they do not agree with, the ability of self determination. What happens when things start to go wrong? Does the peace keeping force put people in their place, like in Catalunya recently? I don't want to wait to find out. Out Politicians may be shit but ultimately they are accountable and removable eventually.
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post #409 of 471 (permalink) Old 10-31-2019, 12:26 PM
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Originally Posted by Nito View Post
Chris,

I used to import stuff from Japan regularly with my old tuning business. You pay duty on certain items, typically between 2%-10% on car stuff depending on what it is and then VAT. The Vat part is the same, so it's only really the duty and the vat on that element which will differ. As an importer of products, the advice from the Gov is to sign up for an EORI number (Economic Operation Registration and Identification) more info here;

https://www.gov.uk/eori

If you are vat registered, part of the Brexit step up preparations meant the government would automatically enrol you in this and you'd receive a letter from the VAT office with your number. Aside from this, you may have some disruption at ports as a result of delays from those who haven't registered. Some companies I know are bringing things in from quieter ports than Dover. I doubt air shipments will be delayed too much. We import tons of stuff from countries external to EU everyday including Japan and the US.

All of that of course, is if we don't leave with a trade deal or GATT 24 extension or any other temporary arrangements as part of the wider future negotiations. No deal or whatever Brexit we get if it ever happens is only the withdrawal agreement, the future relationship remains to be shaped.

I personally would be quite optimistic about leaving, and importantly our democracy remains intact, which is something that rarely gets discussed in these conversations and I find it mind boggling as this is surely the most important thing in all of this. If we remain as per the Lisbon treaty which takes effect next year, our votes will count for nothing, the EU commission are not accountable to the people in any way. It's a perfect recipe for disaster.

Plenty of food for thought everywhere...here's a good Brexit documentary focusing on the democracy aspect which in my view was the main driver for Brexit, this clarifies how the EU works. Think how much the EU has changed in the last 20 years then imagine the next 20 for which Lisbon treaty clearly defines the future direction.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DD0DKFXyfb4

Nito, I myself(as many others in all the EU countries) have grave concerns and fears about where the EU project is heading.
It is a highly complex project with lots of potential, great risks and even greater questions to be asked and ponder.

There is certainly a lot of teratogenesis. And many problems identified by Brexit supporters are valid and worth of serious, deep discussion all over Europe and the western world I would say. As expected, it never happened. Just silly polarization and conflicting interests.



But to say that the main driver of Brexit was (the EU) democratic deficiency...I don't know. Especially you Brits have your own sets of myths, narratives and collective delusions to battle me thinks.


Here is the link to the whole movie you quoted:


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post #410 of 471 (permalink) Old 10-31-2019, 12:51 PM
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If the EU is that confusing to you (Nito) then its no wonder you dont trust it. Youre obviously choosing to willfully ignorant and call a propaganda movie a "documentary" then there isnt much point in attempting to educate you seeing as how you used a lot of words to say complete and utter rubbish. With gold nuggets like, "The conveniently confusingly named European Council" its obvious you have your mind made up and will create whatever "facts" or "logic" you need to support that.

You do you, people like you make me not feel bad knowing my profits coming from speculations come from your retirement accounts. I dont feel bad for people who willingly make idiotic choices (including forming information bubbles to support their biases).


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