UK leaving the EU? - Page 40 - MVAgusta.net
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post #391 of 473 (permalink) Old 10-26-2019, 08:24 AM
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Oh I dont think the EU would be "driving" the UK anywhere. Hence the "kicking the can" comment. Dont know if it translates, "Sie wollen ein Problem aussitzen" maybe?

Just ALLOW the UK to keep doing this dance without interfering until the people get fed up and either Parliament is dissolved, there is another no confidence vote but without a new govt or its still going on in 2022 (although you could start seeing more defections/resignations the closer you get if you see a defeat on the board).

Really the EU doesn't have to do anything but occasionally sit down and negotiate in good faith knowing that whatever reasonable deal that is struck is going to die once it gets home and then grant extensions until the end of time. There is no way the EU is going to just let the UK leave the union while getting the same unfettered access to trade (while simultaneously being allowed to keep brown people out).

All the while businesses are continuing to hedge their bets and move money/operations to the continent or Ireland. So the brexit delay becomes the "soft brexit" everyone was talking about. The UK is too small of a market for a company to commit to so they all move to the mainland to guarantee they have access to the rest of Europe. Even if if all falls apart the EU still wins because businesses already moved resources.

The EU really has no reason to be in a rush. And I dont really see it as having a member state that wants to leave as much as like letting a small child "run away." The UK is learning its not as easy as they thought and would be more reluctant to go down that road again.



Exactly that!!!!! The UK has been used as route to europe whilst still being a currency outside of the Euro. That was one of our big selling points for companies wanting access to two markets with only one base of operations, that route will now quite likley go to the Rep of Ireland as being close to both and a gateway in to both.



You mention these things and it's project fear, the will of the people must be respected blah blah blah. Blinkered madness not seeing how crucial the UK is to europe but also how crucial europe and access to it is to the UK economy. Europe wilkl survive without the UK being that Gateway, they'll offer tax breaks and incentives to companies wishing to move their head quarters, what can UK PLC offer?


Whatever it is it's not been offered yet.
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post #392 of 473 (permalink) Old 10-26-2019, 08:09 PM
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I have not heard anyone asking for another plebiscite, the vote was 3 years+ ago. One imagines that as more young voters come of age and older voters vote no more that the result could well be quite different?
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post #393 of 473 (permalink) Old 10-30-2019, 08:43 AM
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I have not heard anyone asking for another plebiscite, the vote was 3 years+ ago. One imagines that as more young voters come of age and older voters vote no more that the result could well be quite different?
Well, looks like we will find out. December 9th it seems. Either conservatives buck the current trend and increase their majority or they find the chamber with the bullet in it, shoot themselves in the head, and Labour ends up in charge.

Im expecting my equity positions to get a bump from this, most on the business side are expecting this whole debacle to fail spectacularly. Doing nothing is pretty good, Brexit dying a decisive death is better. I think now that people realize that, yes, I could have happened, you're going to get fewer protest or joke votes.
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post #394 of 473 (permalink) Old 10-30-2019, 09:37 AM
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12th December is the General Election??????

I am voting Conservative......no wait........Labour.....no SNP............no BNP..........oh, who cares
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post #395 of 473 (permalink) Old 10-30-2019, 10:12 AM
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Britain must be the laughing stock of the world over this.

I think there'd be good money on another delay after the election!
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post #396 of 473 (permalink) Old 10-30-2019, 01:19 PM
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Well, looks like we will find out. December 9th it seems. Either conservatives buck the current trend and increase their majority or they find the chamber with the bullet in it, shoot themselves in the head, and Labour ends up in charge.

Im expecting my equity positions to get a bump from this, most on the business side are expecting this whole debacle to fail spectacularly. Doing nothing is pretty good, Brexit dying a decisive death is better. I think now that people realize that, yes, I could have happened, you're going to get fewer protest or joke votes.

And i think you've hit a nail on the head there when it comes to protest or joke votes. Regardless of which way you favour i think on the whole no one epxcted there to be a vote in favour leave including those campaigning for it. The result came in and we've all been left with the subsequent car crash. However what i think is actually more telling is the number that didn't vote or protest voted just to stick it to the man.


People keep saying the people have spoken,the majority won, when in reality a greater number actually didn't vote at all than voted to leave and that is what is more telling. No one really knew what it meant, parliament has had 3 years to try and implement it and still can't yet we keep being told to prepare.


I thought i'd be proactive the other day and go on to the govt website for brexit and see how it might affect me doing business with Italy. I answered some questions and the advice was toi essentially seek legal advice for further details. I sought legal advice which was to refer tot eh govt website for further details.........................fucking genius!!! A £100m campaign telling us 'be prepared for brexit' yet i've still not been supplied clear details of how it'll potentially affect me.


I don't want the Tories in as they have simply decimated public services and want to privatise absolutely everything which you just can't do i feel. They keep trying to trim the fat off the bone but we're now well into skimming bone as the fat has long seen gone and yet they want more and it is the greater society suffering now.


Labour? Not sure myself either. History doesn't paint them well with managing public funds by promising the earth and building debt in order to fund it.


I was just having this conversation with a good mate and what i'm after is someone who has had to sit there one friday night shitting themsleves saying 'Fuck, how am i going to pay my rent this week?, what can i sell, maybe someone will lend me the money till payday' That person knows daily struggles, that person understands that we all really just want to get on and having a stuck up multi millionaire tell me he's a man of the people really is a kick in the teeth and he should pretty much fuck off!


It is utter chaos right now.
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post #397 of 473 (permalink) Old 10-30-2019, 01:36 PM
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It is coming up to November 5th soon, they should all be locked in parliament and maybe finish off what Guy Fawkes failed to do
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post #398 of 473 (permalink) Old 10-30-2019, 02:33 PM
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And i think you've hit a nail on the head there when it comes to protest or joke votes. Regardless of which way you favour i think on the whole no one epxcted there to be a vote in favour leave including those campaigning for it. The result came in and we've all been left with the subsequent car crash. However what i think is actually more telling is the number that didn't vote or protest voted just to stick it to the man.
The funny thing is you are definitely right. I dont even think the UKIP leaders expected it to win. I think it was more of a measure to build up their brand, claim to be fighting for the common man, call themselves underdogs and create a long-term strategy to power.

I mean, for fucks sake, the MOMENT the referendum passed each of them could have led the govt. Nigel and Boris were both the highest profile and they both withered like a pair of balls in cold water. And then UKIP itself declined and they had to make an entire new party.

Quote:
Originally Posted by X81 View Post
I thought i'd be proactive the other day and go on to the govt website for brexit and see how it might affect me doing business with Italy. I answered some questions and the advice was toi essentially seek legal advice for further details. I sought legal advice which was to refer tot eh govt website for further details.........................fucking genius!!! A £100m campaign telling us 'be prepared for brexit' yet i've still not been supplied clear details of how it'll potentially affect me.
Not shocking seeing as how nobody still knows even a shred of detail of what is going to happen. If you fall out its ASSUMED you'd fall back on WTO MFN rules, which would actually be horrible. Because it means you couldn't trade favorably with the continent, you'd have to apply the same tariffs/rules/exceptions you would to a nation like Turkey. You wouldn't be able to compete with EU member nations, not even closely. If you tried to lift them then you'd have to life them on everyone else, regardless of their economic power, effectively losing customs protections in the process.

You're basically fucked as far as trade with the continent goes if Brexit happens in any form. Its just a matter of how fucked.

At best, a "clean" Brexit, no way Brussels is going to give you a member arrangement while allowing you to exclude populations and ignore legislation, otherwise EVERYONE would leave the EU as there would be zero point. So you'll end up with an OK trade deal that still cant compete with the nature of trade of member nations, so moving businesses to the continent is going to happen for the sake of market access. Thats already a done deal for most who can honestly, even if Brexit never happens. Banking has moved to Ireland and manufacturing is moving to the continent. Banking might come back but I doubt any manufacturing that moves will return, why incur the cost to move back into a risky market?

And if a "dirty" Brexit happens you're looking at somewhere between a straight punitive arrangement to falling out, relying on the WTO and being a complete outsider looking in. Ford, Honda, Nissan, Airbus, poof in an instant. Your market isnt large enough to be a power player on your own. Half the population of Mexico, the GDP of Brazil, wholly dwarfed by the EU, and an island. Heavy machinery is your best bet now that car makers are moving, behind that its primarily metals and crude/chemicals, which wouldn't require enough of a diverse workforce to sustain the population.

But hey, people took leave of their senses. Not like we can throw stones over here. We voted in a 6x bankrupt, reality TV star, known con-man, twice divorced, illegal immigrant wife having (who is bringing in her family through chain-migration), pussy grabbing, NOW ADMITTED whore-monger in order to "Make America Great Again."
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post #399 of 473 (permalink) Old 10-30-2019, 04:41 PM
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The funny thing is you are definitely right. I dont even think the UKIP leaders expected it to win. I think it was more of a measure to build up their brand, claim to be fighting for the common man, call themselves underdogs and create a long-term strategy to power.

I mean, for fucks sake, the MOMENT the referendum passed each of them could have led the govt. Nigel and Boris were both the highest profile and they both withered like a pair of balls in cold water. And then UKIP itself declined and they had to make an entire new party.



Not shocking seeing as how nobody still knows even a shred of detail of what is going to happen. If you fall out its ASSUMED you'd fall back on WTO MFN rules, which would actually be horrible. Because it means you couldn't trade favorably with the continent, you'd have to apply the same tariffs/rules/exceptions you would to a nation like Turkey. You wouldn't be able to compete with EU member nations, not even closely. If you tried to lift them then you'd have to life them on everyone else, regardless of their economic power, effectively losing customs protections in the process.

You're basically fucked as far as trade with the continent goes if Brexit happens in any form. Its just a matter of how fucked.

At best, a "clean" Brexit, no way Brussels is going to give you a member arrangement while allowing you to exclude populations and ignore legislation, otherwise EVERYONE would leave the EU as there would be zero point. So you'll end up with an OK trade deal that still cant compete with the nature of trade of member nations, so moving businesses to the continent is going to happen for the sake of market access. Thats already a done deal for most who can honestly, even if Brexit never happens. Banking has moved to Ireland and manufacturing is moving to the continent. Banking might come back but I doubt any manufacturing that moves will return, why incur the cost to move back into a risky market?

And if a "dirty" Brexit happens you're looking at somewhere between a straight punitive arrangement to falling out, relying on the WTO and being a complete outsider looking in. Ford, Honda, Nissan, Airbus, poof in an instant. Your market isnt large enough to be a power player on your own. Half the population of Mexico, the GDP of Brazil, wholly dwarfed by the EU, and an island. Heavy machinery is your best bet now that car makers are moving, behind that its primarily metals and crude/chemicals, which wouldn't require enough of a diverse workforce to sustain the population.

But hey, people took leave of their senses. Not like we can throw stones over here. We voted in a 6x bankrupt, reality TV star, known con-man, twice divorced, illegal immigrant wife having (who is bringing in her family through chain-migration), pussy grabbing, NOW ADMITTED whore-monger in order to "Make America Great Again."



Amazing that i can gather more information from someone on the other side of the pond regarding brexit than i can from my own govt and legal organisations. Thank you..............genuinly.


I think potrentially for small companies like me the writing may be on the wall in the coming years, not right away but within 5 years i think. The UK really honestly isn't this manufacturing powerhouse that people think it is.


I've heard some great pro leave arguments but none of them seemed to see that our single biggest selling point was by being in the EU but not pat of the Euro. We had and offered the best of both worlds, access to the EU but the option of a different and more stable economy to trade in.


Now we've fuck all and it's gonna kill this country.


We all laughed at Trump at how stupid you Americans were by voting in such an idiot, then promptly regrouped, had a chat and said 'hold my beer, guess what i can do' and grenaded an entire economy, 3 primie ministers and and entire political system...................................go big or go home eh
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post #400 of 473 (permalink) Old 10-30-2019, 04:42 PM
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Britain must be the laughing stock of the world over this.

I think there'd be good money on another delay after the election!

Nigel my friend, I provide you the latest insights of one of the greatest geopolitical & geo-strategical analyst of our times.


P.S.: Of course I shouldn't say much, because in this parts of Spain we have our own 11th dimensional bubble universes.......


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