AMA: Oppose tariffs on EU motorcycles, parts, and accessories - Page 2 - MVAgusta.net
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post #11 of 20 (permalink) Old 10-07-2019, 08:18 AM
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Sorry, I've been gone a while. You've managed to make a complex issue oversimplified and it's not protectionism...it's fair trade which is not about just taxing the cars from the US. You're missing the other 80% of the issue. Second, protecting Detroit is just a sideline. Again, it's about fair trade which goes beyond one specific industry. But cars and motorcycles imported to the US are more important to Germany than the other way around so a smart negotiator hits you where it will hurt the most and with the industries that have significant influence on your government.

I'm pretty sure China and the EU aren't laughing. Their economies depend significantly more on us than ours does on them. The EU has been on a comparative downside for almost a decade and the only thing China had was to devalue their currency.

Sorry, now it was me being gone for a while. But I would like clarify, I did not write that the EU was laughing, but that China was laughing at both US and EU, because a natural alliance is about to break over these silly tariffs. And if I was missing out the other 80% of the motivation for rasing tariffs, it would be great if you could explain these factors.

Because in my (oversimplified) world, the theory of "Their economies depend significantly more on us than ours does on them." is a little one sided, because this implicates that the other party will not react. The taxes (on cars or whatever) will of course be answered with countermeasures by the EU. And I suspect the lost trade volume ex USA into the EU can not be compensated by Africa or LATAM. Trade wars never have a winner, say economists. But maybe decades of economical science has not been as smart as the current president. In the end products will be more expensive at both ends. Has any of the affected industries thereby gained an advantage? The money goes to the administrations of both parties (which is equal to not being invested efficiently).
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post #12 of 20 (permalink) Old 10-07-2019, 10:02 AM
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What the Twump admin is peddling here .. is 16th century protectionism --- It does not work in any long term sense, but it can give your "protected" country a short-lived respite from foreign competition -- Which ties in well with election promises and the whole agenda of re-election..
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post #13 of 20 (permalink) Old 10-08-2019, 09:21 AM
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Sorry, now it was me being gone for a while. But I would like clarify, I did not write that the EU was laughing, but that China was laughing at both US and EU, because a natural alliance is about to break over these silly tariffs. And if I was missing out the other 80% of the motivation for rasing tariffs, it would be great if you could explain these factors.

Because in my (oversimplified) world, the theory of "Their economies depend significantly more on us than ours does on them." is a little one sided, because this implicates that the other party will not react. The taxes (on cars or whatever) will of course be answered with countermeasures by the EU. And I suspect the lost trade volume ex USA into the EU can not be compensated by Africa or LATAM. Trade wars never have a winner, say economists. But maybe decades of economical science has not been as smart as the current president. In the end products will be more expensive at both ends. Has any of the affected industries thereby gained an advantage? The money goes to the administrations of both parties (which is equal to not being invested efficiently).
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What the Twump admin is peddling here .. is 16th century protectionism --- It does not work in any long term sense, but it can give your "protected" country a short-lived respite from foreign competition -- Which ties in well with election promises and the whole agenda of re-election..
Okay. So the US economy is doing quite well while the EU suffers. That's the other 80%. So much for academic economists opinions. BTW, economics is not a science in the true sense. Maybe you should look up the definition of the scientific method. US GDP growth is 3.1% as of 2nd quarter 2019. The EU is 1.5%. Our unemployment rate is 3.5%, what is it in the EU?. Wait, I know the answer...7.5%. There are more jobs available in the US than people looking for jobs. That puts a positive movement on wages. A steady upward movement on wages is a good thing, which is why our economy is doing well. Everybody is working and they have money to spend. Huh...is that how it works? So the fact that other economies depend more on us than we do on them is not "one sided", it's fact. I know some people don't like facts because they get in the way of their false narrative. It's just a matter of time before the EU and China give in. We can easily wait it out because we have the capacity, they can't. It's not protectionism...it's fair trade. Manufacturing jobs have been leaving the US for decades. Now they're not. God forbid our President cares more about his own people than the rest of the world. You guys can hate Trump. I personally don't care if you do. I would rather have an annoying President that is effective than a nice guy who isn't. James Carville said, "The economy stupid" when referring to why Clinton would beat Bush I. Still holds true today.

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post #14 of 20 (permalink) Old 10-08-2019, 09:46 AM
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Fair trade? - bollocks --

Trade restrictions -- like import taxes can never be "Fair Trade" -- Fair trade is when you can trade on equal terms -- and compete on equal terms -- National and global economy has never been a "Science" in the sense of "Natural Science" It is more like "Chaos Theory" in that is has way to few quantifiable and measurable facts and way to many variables. The US may well have a higher growth than the EU -- hopefully that can then help pay off the US foreign debts -- which are just a bit higher than that of the EU -- Oh, and Unemployment stats for the EU are heavily skewed by the EU having a few countries with insane unemployment figures. In my EU country figures are slightly lower than the US -- at 3.2% at the latest count



Every decision the Twump has made in the last few months is US homeland policy -- to ensure his position for re-election -- even his decisions on foreign policy reflects this - The last decision to withdraw US forces from Northern Syria and leave the Kurdish ground-forces (Who did all the grunt work in removing ISIS) to the mercy of the Turks is a prime example of this. Just face it .. Trump is there for Trump only --
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post #15 of 20 (permalink) Old 10-08-2019, 09:54 AM
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Okay. So the US economy is doing quite well while the EU suffers. That's the other 80%. So much for academic economists opinions. BTW, economics is not a science in the true sense. Maybe you should look up the definition of the scientific method. US GDP growth is 3.1% as of 2nd quarter 2019. The EU is 1.5%. Our unemployment rate is 3.5%, what is it in the EU?. Wait, I know the answer...7.5%. There are more jobs available in the US than people looking for jobs. That puts a positive movement on wages. A steady upward movement on wages is a good thing, which is why our economy is doing well. Everybody is working and they have money to spend. Huh...is that how it works? So the fact that other economies depend more on us than we do on them is not "one sided", it's fact. I know some people don't like facts because they get in the way of their false narrative. It's just a matter of time before the EU and China give in. We can easily wait it out because we have the capacity, they can't. It's not protectionism...it's fair trade. Manufacturing jobs have been leaving the US for decades. Now they're not. God forbid our President cares more about his own people than the rest of the world. You guys can hate Trump. I personally don't care if you do. I would rather have an annoying President that is effective than a nice guy who isn't. James Carville said, "The economy stupid" when referring to why Clinton would beat Bush I. Still holds true today.
My company just had a second round of layoffs in 2 years based solely on ever increasing tariff headwinds. I imagine most large tech manufacturing companies are suffering similarly based on erratic and unpredictable increases in the cost of doing business in a global market. Personally I'd rather keep my engineering job than be fully employed packing boxes at costco for a much lower salary or driving an uber car trying to make ends meet. We've also had a salary freeze in affect for quite a while, so I'm not sure that positive movement in wages is happening beyond the theory that it should. There is this theory that we are still in the midst of some economic boom, and everyone is still raking in the benefits hand over fist, but I don't see that occurring with anyone of my generation within the manufacturing industry.
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post #16 of 20 (permalink) Old 10-08-2019, 11:05 AM
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Trade war and Fair trade are total opposites of each other.

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post #17 of 20 (permalink) Old 10-08-2019, 11:06 AM
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My company just had a second round of layoffs in 2 years based solely on ever increasing tariff headwinds. I imagine most large tech manufacturing companies are suffering similarly based on erratic and unpredictable increases in the cost of doing business in a global market. Personally I'd rather keep my engineering job than be fully employed packing boxes at costco for a much lower salary or driving an uber car trying to make ends meet. We've also had a salary freeze in affect for quite a while, so I'm not sure that positive movement in wages is happening beyond the theory that it should. There is this theory that we are still in the midst of some economic boom, and everyone is still raking in the benefits hand over fist, but I don't see that occurring with anyone of my generation within the manufacturing industry.
Sorry to hear your company is having problems but that is a microcosm, not the bigger picture. Earnings growth is about 3% per year. Tech manufacturing is a tough business no matter what the global economic climate. I don't know why your company cannot compete or what business you are in but I do know it's easy to blame tariffs. The CEO of Ford did it when he laid off 10% of his workforce. Problem with that one was he had announced the layoffs a year earlier, before any tariff increases, and most of the layoffs were overseas. Guess he forgot people actually report stuff like that. I'm not saying that's your company but when I hear any CEO blame anyone else, I'm a little skeptical. It's just too easy and no one questions it. Certainly no one in the media said, "Wait, didn't you say a year ago you were going to do this before the tariff increases?" Interesting you think the jobs that are available are at Costco and Uber. Not reality. I take it your position would be that the manufacturing jobs should continue to leave the US because that was what was happening for decades and everyone was crying about it. Justifiably so. It has stemmed and is even growing and you're still complaining because your company/industry hasn't benefited. Not everything is going to be perfect for everyone. That's reality. Welcome to it. But when the tide has risen for most, that's what matters. I'm not trying to be harsh, I'm truly sorry for your situation but it is not everyone's situation. Not even close.

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post #18 of 20 (permalink) Old 10-08-2019, 11:35 AM
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Okay. So the US economy is doing quite well while the EU suffers. That's the other 80%. So much for academic economists opinions. BTW, economics is not a science in the true sense. Maybe you should look up the definition of the scientific method. US GDP growth is 3.1% as of 2nd quarter 2019. The EU is 1.5%. Our unemployment rate is 3.5%, what is it in the EU?. Wait, I know the answer...7.5%. There are more jobs available in the US than people looking for jobs. That puts a positive movement on wages. A steady upward movement on wages is a good thing, which is why our economy is doing well. Everybody is working and they have money to spend. Huh...is that how it works? So the fact that other economies depend more on us than we do on them is not "one sided", it's fact. I know some people don't like facts because they get in the way of their false narrative. It's just a matter of time before the EU and China give in. We can easily wait it out because we have the capacity, they can't. It's not protectionism...it's fair trade. Manufacturing jobs have been leaving the US for decades. Now they're not. God forbid our President cares more about his own people than the rest of the world. You guys can hate Trump. I personally don't care if you do. I would rather have an annoying President that is effective than a nice guy who isn't. James Carville said, "The economy stupid" when referring to why Clinton would beat Bush I. Still holds true today.
Thank you for the explanation and your very individual interpretation of what consitutes science. I would have never believed to read the good old Fritz Tarnow "purchasing power argument" from someone living in the United States.

Just a little side note: The USA are a country, the EU is not. So you are benchmarking your country with a union of states that encompass member states like Rumania or Greece. Tough competition that you choose. If you do economics like this, then it is really not science...

Good luck with your "waiting it out" strategy!
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post #19 of 20 (permalink) Old 10-08-2019, 01:07 PM
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Sorry to hear your company is having problems but that is a microcosm, not the bigger picture. Earnings growth is about 3% per year. Tech manufacturing is a tough business no matter what the global economic climate. I don't know why your company cannot compete or what business you are in but I do know it's easy to blame tariffs. The CEO of Ford did it when he laid off 10% of his workforce. Problem with that one was he had announced the layoffs a year earlier, before any tariff increases, and most of the layoffs were overseas. Guess he forgot people actually report stuff like that. I'm not saying that's your company but when I hear any CEO blame anyone else, I'm a little skeptical. It's just too easy and no one questions it. Certainly no one in the media said, "Wait, didn't you say a year ago you were going to do this before the tariff increases?" Interesting you think the jobs that are available are at Costco and Uber. Not reality. I take it your position would be that the manufacturing jobs should continue to leave the US because that was what was happening for decades and everyone was crying about it. Justifiably so. It has stemmed and is even growing and you're still complaining because your company/industry hasn't benefited. Not everything is going to be perfect for everyone. That's reality. Welcome to it. But when the tide has risen for most, that's what matters. I'm not trying to be harsh, I'm truly sorry for your situation but it is not everyone's situation. Not even close.
My position is that the manufacturing jobs of the past don't exist here, haven't for decades, and won't in the future. Its pretty clear to me that true large scale manufacturing jobs will not return to the US in any way that will result in incomes that can be used to support a family in this country. Our directives based on the list 3 and and list 4a tariffs have driven us to build even more overseas just outside of China. The global supply chain for electronics and batteries makes it nearly impossible to vertically integrate within the US when things that are not and will not be made here need to be brought in. We build global products for a global market, and isolationism isn't going to benefit anyone in the long term.
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post #20 of 20 (permalink) Old 10-09-2019, 08:53 AM
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My position is that the manufacturing jobs of the past don't exist here, haven't for decades, and won't in the future. Its pretty clear to me that true large scale manufacturing jobs will not return to the US in any way that will result in incomes that can be used to support a family in this country. Our directives based on the list 3 and and list 4a tariffs have driven us to build even more overseas just outside of China. The global supply chain for electronics and batteries makes it nearly impossible to vertically integrate within the US when things that are not and will not be made here need to be brought in. We build global products for a global market, and isolationism isn't going to benefit anyone in the long term.
Fair trade isn't isolationism. It's actually quite the opposite. I'm not sure why you're confused about the two terms. Since you're against his tactics to protect American jobs I take it you are all for the status quo. Allow countries to take advantage of previously weak administrations and dump their products on the US market, steal our intellectual property and further erode US manufacturing and tech advantages? I don't hear him saying we shouldn't allow other countries their competitive advantages or we should punish them because they do. He's asking them to come to the table with serious reforms to their trade policies.

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